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????利率债投资策略:上周债市呈现下半周资金面趋紧、股债联动减弱和降息预期再起三大特点,全周债券收益率震荡上行。从经济基本面来看,无论是1-2月经济数据还是最近高频数据,都显示下游开工好于预期,整体经济保持平稳,而且总理答记者问中提到多项刺激消费、保障宽信用资源来源等措施,后续宽信用对经济的维稳作用也会加速体现。资金面方面,下周资金面面临MLF到期、缴税后负面影响和地方债发行放量的负面影响,建议不可过于乐观。最近股市虽然有所反复,但市场风险偏好仍较好,股市上涨动力仍是债市压力,整体建议债券谨慎操作。  第一,经济基本面:开年经济企稳,钢铁社库、厂库同向加速去库存。上周披露的1-2月经济数据显示投资和消费好于预期,工业低于预期,但如果剔除春节因素之后工业同比增长6.1%,整体经济运行总体平稳。高频数据显示,目前钢铁已经处于加速去库存通道中,需求表现好于去年(库存去化快于去年),前期影响下游开工的天气负面扰动逐步减轻后,预计下游需求回升,钢铁开工将小幅回升,旺季钢价有望继续上升;电厂耗煤处在近五年同期最高水平,增值税下调政策有望提振汽车消费。今年各种宽信用政策还是陆续出台中,政府稳增长的基建和消费还未完全发力,经济大概率将企稳回升。  第二,政策:短期降息可能性不大,宽信用有资金来源保障。上周五两会闭幕后,总理会见采访记者,并回答了记者提出的问题,主要有:1)政府适当调低了经济增速预期目标,现在政府是底线思维、区间调控。2)短期降息可能性不大,提高银行信用风险偏好、疏通货币政策传导机制才能根治融资问题。3)今年减税降费红利近两万亿元,确保所有行业税负只减不增,从根本上保障减税降费的实施效果。4)除了提高赤字率,政府会压缩一般公共预算支出中的不必要部分,增加利润上缴,盘活地方地方政府存量资金。所以未来宽信用有资金保障。5)今年让小微企业融资成本在去年的基础上再降低1个百分点。6)今年刺激消费措施是全方位立体,不仅仅有直接针对消费者的,还有针对厂商间接实现让利于消费者进而刺激老百姓(603883)消费的措施,今年消费可能超市场预期。  第三,资金面:下周资金面可能仍不乐观。上周受税期和地方债发行放量影响,上周下半周资金面趋紧,DR001和DR007利率分别较上上周五上行61bp和47bp,但央行仅在上周五投放200亿元。短期资金面有以下几点值得关注:  首先,上周六有3270亿元MLF到期顺延到下周一,然而今年1月降准时央行曾表示一季度到期的中期借贷便利不再续做,那么下周如何应对。其次,按照历史规律,缴税后资金面紧张会持续2-3天,因为上周五是本月税期截止日,那么下周央行公开市场操作值得观察。如果央行资金投放不多的话,类似上周上半周资金面趋紧的情况仍有可能发生。最后,根据我们此前预测,2019年地方债发行总量或超过4.35万亿,上周地方债发行明显放量,后期地方债供给压力对资金面的负面影响可能会持续较长时间。  一、上周市场回顾:资金趋紧,股债联动减弱  上周资金面前松后紧,公布的1-2月经济数据显示目前经济保持平稳,下半周股债联动有所减弱,全周中长端债券收益率震荡上行3-5bp左右,短端上行幅度更大。具体来看,上周末公布的2月社融数据虽然不及预期,但主要与春节错位和票据监管趋严有关,周一股市大涨带动债市调整,10年国开收益率上行3bp左右;周二债券市场交投活跃,受股票市场上午一路拉升,午后涨幅收窄影响,利率先上后下,全天来看利率较昨日收盘变动不大;周三资金面相对宽松,国债期货全天小幅震荡,现货收益率也小幅波动,10年国开收益率较前一个交易日下行1bp左右;周四全天资金面明显趋紧,公布的1-2月经济数据显示目前经济保持平稳,股市一路走低,但债市持续调整,股债联动减弱延续,周四10年国开收益率上行3bp左右;周五资金面紧张,总理答记者问提及“还可以运用像存款准备金率、利率等数量型或价格型工具”,刺激市场对降息的预期,债券收益率先上后下。  曲线陡峭程度方面,上周国债和国开债收益率曲线继续呈现平坦化趋势,二者10y-1y利差分别下行2bp和下行7bp,平坦化程度较上上周周略有减弱。资金面方面,上周央行投放逆回购200亿元,上周六有3270亿元MLF到期顺延到下周一。值得注意的是,受缴税和地方债发行放量影响,上周下半周资金面趋紧,DR001和DR007利率分别较上上周五上行61bp和47bp。下载APP 阅读本文更深度报道  二、利率市场展望:宽信用有资金来源保障,短期经济企稳  上周债市主要影响变量集中在经济数据保持平稳、下半周资金面明显趋紧和总理讲话刺激市场降息预期,对于后期,我们认为需要关注以下几点:  1、经济基本面:开年经济企稳,钢铁社库、厂库同向加速去库存  上周四统计局公布了1-2月经济数据,其中投资和消费好于预期,工业低于预期,具体来看:1)1-2月工业增加同比为5.3%,较去年12月下降0.4个百分点,但主要受春节因素影响。统计局表示,如果剔除春节因素之后,同比增长6.1%。2)1-2月固定资产投资同比增长6.1%,较去年全年提高0.2个百分点。其中房地产(000736)投资累计同比增长11.6%,较去年提高2.1个百分点,而基建投资累计增速较去年提高0.5个百分点至4.3%。如果考虑到后续地方债发行放量、盘活存量资金等,未来基建投资仍有不小的发力空间。3)社零增速持平去年12月8.2%,其中汽车消费同比下降2.8%,房地产相关消费也有所消费,但今年家电下乡、减税降费等刺激消费政策有望逐步给消费带来新增动力。综合来看,1-2月经济运行总体平稳,并未出现市场担心的明显回落,而且今年各种宽信用政策还是陆续出台中,政府稳增长的基建和消费还未完全发力,经济大概率将企稳回升。  为了密切跟踪宏观经济最新情况,本期周报中我们更新了高频数据,主要结论如下:  钢铁社库和厂库同向去库,且去库加速。黑色金属方面,由于两会期间限产力度较强,上周唐山和全国高炉开工率分别环比下降7.32个和0.69个百分点,但另一方面上周首钢京唐等钢厂高炉短期检修结束,上周公布的周度产量数据也显示上周螺纹钢周度产量环比上升0.64%,而上上周产量环比下跌0.49%。库存方面,上周四mysteel公布的库存数据显示,上周社会库存和厂库同向去库,且降幅均较上上周有所扩大,比如节后第3-5周周度钢厂总库存分别环比下降4.3%、6.27%和8.26%,社会总库存分别环比增加3.87%、下降0.9%和下降3.78%。上周四钢铁数据披露后,黑色期货价格有所下跌,有观点认为这是对后期需求不足的一种提前反应。但我们认为黑色期货价格跌幅很小,而且黑色现货价格几乎保持平稳,更为重要的是从现在产销数据来看,下游需求是好于此前市场预期的,因此不要过度解读期货价格的正常波动。  整体来看,目前钢铁已经处于去库存通道中,需求表现好于去年(库存去化快于去年),前期影响下游开工的天气负面扰动逐步减轻后,预计下游需求回升,钢铁开工将小幅回升,旺季钢价有望继续上升。  电厂耗煤处在近五年同期最高水平,水泥价格绝对水平仍然处在高位。上周五公布的六大电厂耗煤量为62.67万吨。尽管较上上周五环比降低2.35万吨,但从历史同期比较来看,目前电厂耗煤数据处在近五年最高水平。我们认为这一方面与今年过年时间较早的背景下电厂耗煤数据见底和见顶的时间早于历史大部分年份有关,另一方面从节后的恢复速度来看,今年电厂耗煤水平并不差于前几年。受春节错位的影响(今年春节假期对工业数据的不利影响基本全部反映在2月),今年1-2月工业增速低于预期,我们认为随着节后生产的加速恢复,3月的工业增速或有一定程度地改善。上周五水泥价格指数为145.09,较上上周小幅下滑1.3,当前水泥价格绝对水平仍然处在高位。  汽车消费依然颓势,增值税下调政策或将对其有所提振。上上周乘联会公布的乘用车厂家批发日均销量为3.9万辆,较去年同期的5.7万辆降幅明显。今年以来,乘联会公布的数据显示18年汽车消费低迷的状态在19年有所延续。从4月1日开始,制造业等行业现行16%的增值税税率将会降至13%,目前已有多家厂商宣布提前降价。叠加未来政策层面可能加码的消费刺激政策,汽车消费的颓势或将有所缓和。  上周披露的1-2月经济数据显示投资和消费好于预期,工业低于预期,但如果剔除春节因素之后工业同比增长6.1%,整体经济运行总体平稳。高频数据显示,目前钢铁已经处于加速去库存通道中,需求表现好于去年(库存去化快于去年),前期影响下游开工的天气负面扰动逐步减轻后,预计下游需求回升,钢铁开工将小幅回升,旺季钢价有望继续上升;电厂耗煤处在近五年同期最高水平,增值税下调政策有望提振汽车消费。今年各种宽信用政策还是陆续出台中,政府稳增长的基建和消费还未完全发力,经济大概率将企稳回升。  2、政策:短期降息可能性不大,宽信用有资金来源保障  上周五两会闭幕后,总理会见采访记者,并回答了记者提出的问题。我们将18个问题中对债券市场在内的资本市场影响较大的几方面列举如下:  第一,适度调降经济增速目标问题:  “中国适度调低增速预期目标,用的是区间调控的方式。既和去年经济增速相衔接,也表明我们不会让经济运行滑出合理的区间。可以说给市场发出的是稳定的信号”,“今年预计增长6%-6.5%”。  今年全球经济增速都面临一定压力,因此政府适当调低了经济增速预期目标。但不同于此前,现在政府是底线思维,只要经济在预定的合理区间范围内波动就不会明显刺激经济。后期随着宽信用政策的不断落地,宏观经济下滑压力将会有所减缓。  第二,降息问题:  “可以运用像存款准备金率、利率等数量型或价格型工具,这不是放松银根,而是让实体经济更有效地得到支持”。  3月上旬债市情绪较好,10年国债收益率区间波动15bp左右,主要和市场降息预期有关。我们曾在近期日报《短期内降息预期大概率将落空——江海证券资管部债券日报20190308》中阐述了我们对于短期内降息预期的看法。本次总理答记者问再次刺激市场对降息预期,上周五日内10年国开活跃券利率从高点下行4bp左右。  首先,我们认为实体经济融资成本与贷款利率更为相关,降息不能根治融资问题,提高银行信用风险偏好、疏通货币政策传导机制才能根治,近期易刚也表示“企业融资成本高是风险溢价造成”。  其次,年初以来经济基本面已经出现企稳迹象,经济下行压力开始缓和,未来随着中美贸易协议有望达成,经济下行风险有望进一步消退,降息作为货币政策宽松的最后手段,必要性并不强。  最后,在中美利差依然偏低的背景下,降息会导致汇率贬值压力卷土重来,对国内利率和流动性带来负面影响。房贷利率和基准利率直接相关,降息可能引发房价再次反弹,与房地产调控的政策取向相悖。此外,今年猪肉和油价是两个最不确定性的因素,后期不排除通胀预期超预期,届时如果降息可能会进一步加剧市场通胀预期。  第三,减税降费措施问题:  “今年下决心要进行更大规模的减税降费。把增值税和单位社保缴费率降下来,减税降费红利近两万亿元”,“4月1日就要减增值税,5月1日就要降社保费率”,“对所有的中小微企业实行普惠性减税,确保所有行业税负只减不增。对基本养老保险单位缴费率,我们还明确,可以从原规定的20%降到16%”。  减税降费来的比预期更快,实施力度也比预期更大。此前市场对部分行业减税后实际税负反而加重持有疑惑,本次答记者问总理提到要对这些抵扣少了的行业,用打补丁的办法加大抵扣的力度,并对所有的中小微企业实行普惠性减税,确保所有行业税负只减不增,这会从根本上保障减税降费的实施效果。  第四:宽信用资金来源问题:  “我们今年提高赤字率0.2个百分点,没有超过国际上说的所谓3%的警戒线”,“政府要过紧日子,不仅要压缩一般公共预算的支出,而且增加特定的金融机构和央企上缴利润、进入国库,并把长期沉淀的资金收回。通过这些举措,我们筹集了1万亿元资金。我们还要求地方政府也要挖潜,把自己的功课做足。对中西部地区,我们将给予适当的转移支付支持。”  大力度减税降费会降低政府收入,提高0.2个百分点的赤字率仅能部分弥补有关缺口。未来政府会压缩一般公共预算支出中的不必要部分,而且增加特定的金融机构和央企上缴利润、进入国库,盘活地方地方政府存量资金。总理提到压缩公共预算支出和增加利润上缴等筹集了1万亿元资金,也说明了开源节流的实实在在效果,有利于后期宽信用政策的落地。  第五,降低实体企业融资成本问题:  “我们四次降准,其目的还是通过降低金融机构本身的成本,促进这些资金流向民营经济和小微企业”,“让小微企业融资成本在去年的基础上再降低1个百分点”,“引导金融机构改善内部管理机制,多跑民营企业、小微企业,为他们降低融资成本、减少不合理的费用出力”。  去年四季度央行货币政策执行报告提到,企业贷款和小微企业贷款利率分别连续四个月和五个月下降,12月末非金融企业及其他部门贷款加权平均利率为5.63%,同比下降0.11个百分点,比9月下降0.31个百分点;一般贷款加权平均利率为5.91%,比9月下降0.28个百分点。总理提到今年小微企业融资成本要在去年的基础上再降低1个百分点,如果按照去年四季度每个季度下降20多bp的节奏,全面可以实现该目标。实际上,今年以来温州民间借贷综合利率和票据转贴利率都有所下行,其中温州民间借贷综合利率从去年12月16.41%降至2月15.87%,6个月票据转贴利率从去年底2.75%降至最近2.45%左右。  第六,刺激消费问题:  “政府工作报告提出,两年内要基本取消省界高速公路收费站”,“网络的提速降费,,,今年要在过去的基础上再降费20%。我让有关方面测算,他们预计要让利1800亿给消费者”,“我们今年要再降低一般工商业电价10%”。  今年刺激消费措施是全方位立体,不仅仅有直接针对消费者的网络降费、家电汽车下乡、个人所得税制改革等,还有针对厂商间接实现让利于消费者进而刺激老百姓消费的措施,比如降低工商企业电价、下调增值税税率、降低实体企业融资成本等。  整体而言,上周五两会闭幕后,总理会见采访记者,并回答了记者提出的问题,主要有:1)政府适当调低了经济增速预期目标,现在政府是底线思维、区间调控。2)短期降息可能性不大,提高银行信用风险偏好、疏通货币政策传导机制才能根治融资问题。3)今年减税降费红利近两万亿元,确保所有行业税负只减不增,从根本上保障减税降费的实施效果。4)除了提高赤字率,政府会压缩一般公共预算支出中的不必要部分,增加利润上缴,盘活地方地方政府存量资金。所以未来宽信用有资金保障。5)今年让小微企业融资成本在去年的基础上再降低1个百分点。6)今年刺激消费措施是全方位立体,不仅仅有直接针对消费者的,还有针对厂商间接实现让利于消费者进而刺激老百姓消费的措施,今年消费可能超市场预期。  3、资金面:下周资金面可能仍不乐观  上周受税期和地方债发行放量影响,上周下半周资金面趋紧,DR001和DR007利率分别较上上周五上行61bp和47bp,但央行仅在上周五投放200亿元。短期资金面有以下几点值得关注:  首先,上周六有3270亿元MLF到期顺延到下周一,然而今年1月降准时央行曾表示一季度到期的中期借贷便利不再续做,那么下周央行公开市场操作值得观察。如果央行资金投放不多的话,类似上周上半周资金面趋紧的情况仍有可能发生。  其次,按照历史规律,缴税后资金面紧张会持续2-3天,因为上周五是本月税期截止日,那么下周下半周缴税的负面影响也不能完全忽视。  最后,根据我们此前预测,2019年地方债发行总量或超过4.35万亿,上周地方债发行明显放量,后期地方债供给压力对资金面的负面影响可能会持续较长时间。  利率债投资策略:上周债市呈现下半周资金面趋紧、股债联动减弱和降息预期再起三大特点,全周债券收益率震荡上行。从经济基本面来看,无论是1-2月经济数据还是最近高频数据,都显示下游开工好于预期,整体经济保持平稳,而且总理答记者问中提到多项刺激消费、保障宽信用资源来源等措施,后续宽信用对经济的维稳作用也会加速体现。资金面方面,下周资金面面临MLF到期、缴税后负面影响和地方债发行放量的负面影响,建议不可过于乐观。最近股市虽然有所反复,但市场风险偏好仍较好,股市上涨动力仍是债市压力,整体建议债券谨慎操作。本文首发于微信公众号:屈庆债券论坛。文章内容属作者个人观点,不代表网立场。投资者据此操作,风险请自担。

li lv zhai tou zi ce lue: shang zhou zhai shi cheng xian xia ban zhou zi jin mian qu jin gu zhai lian dong jian ruo he jiang xi yu qi zai qi san da te dian, quan zhou zhai quan shou yi lv zhen dang shang xing. cong jing ji ji ben mian lai kan, wu lun shi 12 yue jing ji shu ju hai shi zui jin gao pin shuo ju, dou xian shi xia you kai gong hao yu yu qi, zheng ti jing ji bao chi ping wen, er qie zong li da ji zhe wen zhong ti dao duo xiang ci ji xiao fei bao zhang kuan xin yong zi yuan lai yuan deng cuo shi, hou xu kuan xin yong dui jing ji de wei wen zuo yong ye hui jia su ti xian. zi jin mian fang mian, xia zhou zi jin mian mian lin MLF dao qi jiao shui hou fu mian ying xiang he di fang zhai fa xing fang liang de fu mian ying xiang, jian yi bu ke guo yu le guan. zui jin gu shi sui ran you suo fan fu, dan shi chang feng xian pian hao reng jiao hao, gu shi shang zhang dong li reng shi zhai shi ya li, zheng ti jian yi zhai quan jin shen cao zuo.   di yi, jing ji ji ben mian: kai nian jing ji qi wen, gang tie she ku chang ku tong xiang jia su qu ku cun. shang zhou pi lu de 12 yue jing ji shu ju xian shi tou zi he xiao fei hao yu yu qi, gong ye di yu yu qi, dan ru guo ti chu chun jie yin su zhi hou gong ye tong bi zeng zhang 6. 1, zheng ti jing ji yun xing zong ti ping wen. gao pin shuo ju xian shi, mu qian gang tie yi jing chu yu jia su qu ku cun tong dao zhong, xu qiu biao xian hao yu qu nian ku cun qu hua kuai yu qu nian, qian qi ying xiang xia you kai gong de tian qi fu mian rao dong zhu bu jian qing hou, yu ji xia you xu qiu hui sheng, gang tie kai gong jiang xiao fu hui sheng, wang ji gang jia you wang ji xu shang sheng dian chang hao mei chu zai jin wu nian tong qi zui gao shui ping, zeng zhi shui xia diao zheng ce you wang ti zhen qi che xiao fei. jin nian ge zhong kuan xin yong zheng ce hai shi lu xu chu tai zhong, zheng fu wen zeng zhang de ji jian he xiao fei hai wei wan quan fa li, jing ji da gai lv jiang qi wen hui sheng.   di er, zheng ce: duan qi jiang xi ke neng xing bu da, kuan xin yong you zi jin lai yuan bao zhang. shang zhou wu liang hui bi mu hou, zong li hui jian cai fang ji zhe, bing hui da le ji zhe ti chu de wen ti, zhu yao you: 1 zheng fu shi dang diao di le jing ji zeng su yu qi mu biao, xian zai zheng fu shi di xian si wei qu jian tiao kong. 2 duan qi jiang xi ke neng xing bu da, ti gao yin hang xin yong feng xian pian hao shu tong huo bi zheng ce chuan dao ji zhi cai neng gen zhi rong zi wen ti. 3 jin nian jian shui jiang fei hong li jin liang wan yi yuan, que bao suo you hang ye shui fu zhi jian bu zeng, cong gen ben shang bao zhang jian shui jiang fei de shi shi xiao guo. 4 chu le ti gao chi zi lv, zheng fu hui ya suo yi ban gong gong yu suan zhi chu zhong de bu bi yao bu fen, zeng jia li run shang jiao, pan huo di fang di fang zheng fu cun liang zi jin. suo yi wei lai kuan xin yong you zi jin bao zhang. 5 jin nian rang xiao wei qi ye rong zi cheng ben zai qu nian de ji chu shang zai jiang di 1 ge bai fen dian. 6 jin nian ci ji xiao fei cuo shi shi quan fang wei li ti, bu jin jin you zhi jie zhen dui xiao fei zhe de, hai you zhen dui chang shang jian jie shi xian rang li yu xiao fei zhe jin er ci ji lao bai xing 603883 xiao fei de cuo shi, jin nian xiao fei ke neng chao shi chang yu qi.   di san, zi jin mian: xia zhou zi jin mian ke neng reng bu le guan. shang zhou shou shui qi he di fang zhai fa xing fang liang ying xiang, shang zhou xia ban zhou zi jin mian qu jin, DR001 he DR007 li lv fen bie jiao shang shang zhou wu shang xing 61bp he 47bp, dan yang hang jin zai shang zhou wu tou fang 200 yi yuan. duan qi zi jin mian you yi xia ji dian zhi de guan zhu:   shou xian, shang zhou liu you 3270 yi yuan MLF dao qi shun yan dao xia zhou yi, ran er jin nian 1 yue jiang zhun shi yang hang ceng biao shi yi ji du dao qi de zhong qi jie dai bian li bu zai xu zuo, na me xia zhou ru he ying dui. qi ci, an zhao li shi gui lv, jiao shui hou zi jin mian jin zhang hui chi xu 23 tian, yin wei shang zhou wu shi ben yue shui qi jie zhi ri, na me xia zhou yang hang gong kai shi chang cao zuo zhi de guan cha. ru guo yang hang zi jin tou fang bu duo de hua, lei si shang zhou shang ban zhou zi jin mian qu jin de qing kuang reng you ke neng fa sheng. zui hou, gen ju wo men ci qian yu ce, 2019 nian di fang zhai fa xing zong liang huo chao guo 4. 35 wan yi, shang zhou di fang zhai fa xing ming xian fang liang, hou qi di fang zhai gong ji ya li dui zi jin mian di fu mian ying xiang ke neng hui chi xu jiao chang shi jian.   yi shang zhou shi chang hui gu: zi jin qu jin, gu zhai lian dong jian ruo   shang zhou zi jin mian qian song hou jin, gong bu de 12 yue jing ji shu ju xian shi mu qian jing ji bao chi ping wen, xia ban zhou gu zhai lian dong you suo jian ruo, quan zhou zhong chang duan zhai quan shou yi lv zhen dang shang xing 35bp zuo you, duan duan shang xing fu du geng da. ju ti lai kan, shang zhou mo gong bu de 2 yue she rong shu ju sui ran bu ji yu qi, dan zhu yao yu chun jie cuo wei he piao ju jian guan qu yan you guan, zhou yi gu shi da zhang dai dong zhai shi tiao zheng, 10 nian guo kai shou yi lv shang xing 3bp zuo you zhou er zhai quan shi chang jiao tou huo yue, shou gu piao shi chang shang wu yi lu la sheng, wu hou zhang fu shou zhai ying xiang, li shuai xian shang hou xia, quan tian lai kan li lv jiao zuo ri shou pan bian dong bu da zhou san zi jin mian xiang dui kuan song, guo zhai qi huo quan tian xiao fu zhen dang, xian huo shou yi lv ye xiao fu bo dong, 10 nian guo kai shou yi lv jiao qian yi ge jiao yi ri xia xing 1bp zuo you zhou si quan tian zi jin mian ming xian qu jin, gong bu de 12 yue jing ji shu ju xian shi mu qian jing ji bao chi ping wen, gu shi yi lu zou di, dan zhai shi chi xu tiao zheng, gu zhai lian dong jian ruo yan xu, zhou si 10 nian guo kai shou yi lv shang xing 3bp zuo you zhou wu zi jin mian jin zhang, zong li da ji zhe wen ti ji" hai ke yi yun yong xiang cun kuan zhun bei jin lv li lv deng shu liang xing huo jia ge xing gong ju", ci ji shi chang dui jiang xi de yu qi, zhai quan shou yi shuai xian shang hou xia.   qu xian dou qiao cheng du fang mian, shang zhou guo zhai he guo kai zhai shou yi lv qu xian ji xu cheng xian ping tan hua qu shi, er zhe 10y1y li cha fen bie xia xing 2bp he xia xing 7bp, ping tan hua cheng du jiao shang shang zhou zhou lue you jian ruo. zi jin mian fang mian, shang zhou yang hang tou fang ni hui gou 200 yi yuan, shang zhou liu you 3270 yi yuan MLF dao qi shun yan dao xia zhou yi. zhi de zhu yi de shi, shou jiao shui he di fang zhai fa xing fang liang ying xiang, shang zhou xia ban zhou zi jin mian qu jin, DR001 he DR007 li lv fen bie jiao shang shang zhou wu shang xing 61bp he 47bp. xia zai APP yue du ben wen geng shen du bao dao   er li lv shi chang zhan wang: kuan xin yong you zi jin lai yuan bao zhang, duan qi jing ji qi wen   shang zhou zhai shi zhu yao ying xiang bian liang ji zhong zai jing ji shu ju bao chi ping wen xia ban zhou zi jin mian ming xian qu jin he zong li jiang hua ci ji shi chang jiang xi yu qi, dui yu hou qi, wo men ren wei xu yao guan zhu yi xia ji dian:   1 jing ji ji ben mian: kai nian jing ji qi wen, gang tie she ku chang ku tong xiang jia su qu ku cun   shang zhou si tong ji ju gong bu le 12 yue jing ji shu ju, qi zhong tou zi he xiao fei hao yu yu qi, gong ye di yu yu qi, ju ti lai kan: 1 12 yue gong ye zeng jia tong bi wei 5. 3, jiao qu nian 12 yue xia jiang 0. 4 ge bai fen dian, dan zhu yao shou chun jie yin su ying xiang. tong ji ju biao shi, ru guo ti chu chun jie yin su zhi hou, tong bi zeng zhang 6. 1. 2 12 yue gu ding zi chan tou zi tong bi zeng zhang 6. 1, jiao qu nian quan nian ti gao 0. 2 ge bai fen dian. qi zhong fang di chan 000736 tou zi lei ji tong bi zeng zhang 11. 6, jiao qu nian ti gao 2. 1 ge bai fen dian, er ji jian tou zi lei ji zeng su jiao qu nian ti gao 0. 5 ge bai fen dian zhi 4. 3. ru guo kao lv dao hou xu di fang zhai fa xing fang liang pan huo cun liang zi jin deng, wei lai ji jian tou zi reng you bu xiao de fa li kong jian. 3 she ling zeng su chi ping qu nian 12 yue 8. 2, qi zhong qi che xiao fei tong bi xia jiang 2. 8, fang di chan xiang guan xiao fei ye you suo xiao fei, dan jin nian jia dian xia xiang jian shui jiang fei deng ci ji xiao fei zheng ce you wang zhu bu gei xiao fei dai lai xin zeng dong li. zong he lai kan, 12 yue jing ji yun xing zong ti ping wen, bing wei chu xian shi chang dan xin de ming xian hui luo, er qie jin nian ge zhong kuan xin yong zheng ce hai shi lu xu chu tai zhong, zheng fu wen zeng zhang de ji jian he xiao fei hai wei wan quan fa li, jing ji da gai lv jiang qi wen hui sheng.   wei le mi qie gen zong hong guan jing ji zui xin qing kuang, ben qi zhou bao zhong wo men geng xin le gao pin shuo ju, zhu yao jie lun ru xia:   gang tie she ku he chang ku tong xiang qu ku, qie qu ku jia su. hei se jin shu fang mian, you yu liang hui qi jian xian chan li du jiao qiang, shang zhou tang shan he quan guo gao lu kai gong lv fen bie huan bi xia jiang 7. 32 ge he 0. 69 ge bai fen dian, dan ling yi fang mian shang zhou shou gang jing tang deng gang chang gao lu duan qi jian xiu jie shu, shang zhou gong bu de zhou du chan liang shu ju ye xian shi shang zhou luo wen gang zhou du chan liang huan bi shang sheng 0. 64, er shang shang zhou chan liang huan bi xia die 0. 49. ku cun fang mian, shang zhou si mysteel gong bu de ku cun shu ju xian shi, shang zhou she hui ku cun he chang ku tong xiang qu ku, qie jiang fu jun jiao shang shang zhou you suo kuo da, bi ru jie hou di 35 zhou zhou du gang chang zong ku cun fen bie huan bi xia jiang 4. 3 6. 27 he 8. 26, she hui zong ku cun fen bie huan bi zeng jia 3. 87 xia jiang 0. 9 he xia jiang 3. 78. shang zhou si gang tie shu ju pi lu hou, hei se qi huo jia ge you suo xia die, you guan dian ren wei zhe shi dui hou qi xu qiu bu zu de yi zhong ti qian fan ying. dan wo men ren wei hei se qi huo jia ge die fu hen xiao, er qie hei se xian huo jia ge ji hu bao chi ping wen, geng wei zhong yao de shi cong xian zai chan xiao shu ju lai kan, xia you xu qiu shi hao yu ci qian shi chang yu qi de, yin ci bu yao guo du jie du qi huo jia ge de zheng chang bo dong.   zheng ti lai kan, mu qian gang tie yi jing chu yu qu ku cun tong dao zhong, xu qiu biao xian hao yu qu nian ku cun qu hua kuai yu qu nian, qian qi ying xiang xia you kai gong de tian qi fu mian rao dong zhu bu jian qing hou, yu ji xia you xu qiu hui sheng, gang tie kai gong jiang xiao fu hui sheng, wang ji gang jia you wang ji xu shang sheng.   dian chang hao mei chu zai jin wu nian tong qi zui gao shui ping, shui ni jia ge jue dui shui ping reng ran chu zai gao wei. shang zhou wu gong bu de liu da dian chang hao mei liang wei 62. 67 wan dun. jin guan jiao shang shang zhou wu huan bi jiang di 2. 35 wan dun, dan cong li shi tong qi bi jiao lai kan, mu qian dian chang hao mei shu ju chu zai jin wu nian zui gao shui ping. wo men ren wei zhe yi fang mian yu jin nian guo nian shi jian jiao zao de bei jing xia dian chang hao mei shu ju jian di he jian ding de shi jian zao yu li shi da bu fen nian fen you guan, ling yi fang mian cong jie hou de hui fu su du lai kan, jin nian dian chang hao mei shui ping bing bu cha yu qian ji nian. shou chun jie cuo wei de ying xiang jin nian chun jie jia qi dui gong ye shu ju de bu li ying xiang ji ben quan bu fan ying zai 2 yue, jin nian 12 yue gong ye zeng su di yu yu qi, wo men ren wei sui zhe jie hou sheng chan de jia su hui fu, 3 yue de gong ye zeng su huo you yi ding cheng du di gai shan. shang zhou wu shui ni jia ge zhi shu wei 145. 09, jiao shang shang zhou xiao fu xia hua 1. 3, dang qian shui ni jia ge jue dui shui ping reng ran chu zai gao wei.   qi che xiao fei yi ran tui shi, zeng zhi shui xia diao zheng ce huo jiang dui qi you suo ti zhen. shang shang zhou cheng lian hui gong bu de cheng yong che chang jia pi fa ri jun xiao liang wei 3. 9 wan liang, jiao qu nian tong qi de 5. 7 wan liang jiang fu ming xian. jin nian yi lai, cheng lian hui gong bu de shu ju xian shi 18 nian qi che xiao fei di mi de zhuang tai zai 19 nian you suo yan xu. cong 4 yue 1 ri kai shi, zhi zao ye deng hang ye xian xing 16 de zeng zhi shui shui lv jiang hui jiang zhi 13, mu qian yi you duo jia chang shang xuan bu ti qian jiang jia. die jia wei lai zheng ce ceng mian ke neng jia ma de xiao fei ci ji zheng ce, qi che xiao fei de tui shi huo jiang you suo huan he.   shang zhou pi lu de 12 yue jing ji shu ju xian shi tou zi he xiao fei hao yu yu qi, gong ye di yu yu qi, dan ru guo ti chu chun jie yin su zhi hou gong ye tong bi zeng zhang 6. 1, zheng ti jing ji yun xing zong ti ping wen. gao pin shuo ju xian shi, mu qian gang tie yi jing chu yu jia su qu ku cun tong dao zhong, xu qiu biao xian hao yu qu nian ku cun qu hua kuai yu qu nian, qian qi ying xiang xia you kai gong de tian qi fu mian rao dong zhu bu jian qing hou, yu ji xia you xu qiu hui sheng, gang tie kai gong jiang xiao fu hui sheng, wang ji gang jia you wang ji xu shang sheng dian chang hao mei chu zai jin wu nian tong qi zui gao shui ping, zeng zhi shui xia diao zheng ce you wang ti zhen qi che xiao fei. jin nian ge zhong kuan xin yong zheng ce hai shi lu xu chu tai zhong, zheng fu wen zeng zhang de ji jian he xiao fei hai wei wan quan fa li, jing ji da gai lv jiang qi wen hui sheng.   2 zheng ce: duan qi jiang xi ke neng xing bu da, kuan xin yong you zi jin lai yuan bao zhang   shang zhou wu liang hui bi mu hou, zong li hui jian cai fang ji zhe, bing hui da le ji zhe ti chu de wen ti. wo men jiang 18 ge wen ti zhong dui zhai quan shi chang zai nei de zi ben shi chang ying xiang jiao da de ji fang mian lie ju ru xia:   di yi, shi du diao jiang jing ji zeng su mu biao wen ti:  " zhong guo shi du diao di zeng su yu qi mu biao, yong de shi qu jian tiao kong de fang shi. ji he qu nian jing ji zeng su xiang xian jie, ye biao ming wo men bu hui rang jing ji yun xing hua chu he li de qu jian. ke yi shuo gei shi chang fa chu de shi wen ding de xin hao"," jin nian yu ji zeng zhang 6 6. 5".   jin nian quan qiu jing ji zeng su dou mian lin yi ding ya li, yin ci zheng fu shi dang diao di le jing ji zeng su yu qi mu biao. dan bu tong yu ci qian, xian zai zheng fu shi di xian si wei, zhi yao jing ji zai yu ding de he li qu jian fan wei nei bo dong jiu bu hui ming xian ci ji jing ji. hou qi sui zhe kuan xin yong zheng ce de bu duan luo di, hong guan jing ji xia hua ya li jiang hui you suo jian huan.   di er, jiang xi wen ti:  " ke yi yun yong xiang cun kuan zhun bei jin lv li lv deng shu liang xing huo jia ge xing gong ju, zhe bu shi fang song yin gen, er shi rang shi ti jing ji geng you xiao di de dao zhi chi".   3 yue shang xun zhai shi qing xu jiao hao, 10 nian guo zhai shou yi lv qu jian bo dong 15bp zuo you, zhu yao he shi chang jiang xi yu qi you guan. wo men ceng zai jin qi ri bao duan qi nei jiang xi yu qi da gai lv jiang luo kong jiang hai zheng quan zi guan bu zhai quan ri bao 20190308 zhong chan shu le wo men dui yu duan qi nei jiang xi yu qi de kan fa. ben ci zong li da ji zhe wen zai ci ci ji shi chang dui jiang xi yu qi, shang zhou wu ri nei 10 nian guo kai huo yue quan li lv cong gao dian xia xing 4bp zuo you.   shou xian, wo men ren wei shi ti jing ji rong zi cheng ben yu dai kuan li lv geng wei xiang guan, jiang xi bu neng gen zhi rong zi wen ti, ti gao yin hang xin yong feng xian pian hao shu tong huo bi zheng ce chuan dao ji zhi cai neng gen zhi, jin qi yi gang ye biao shi" qi ye rong zi cheng ben gao shi feng xian yi jia zao cheng".   qi ci, nian chu yi lai jing ji ji ben mian yi jing chu xian qi wen ji xiang, jing ji xia xing ya li kai shi huan he, wei lai sui zhe zhong mei mao yi xie yi you wang da cheng, jing ji xia xing feng xian you wang jin yi bu xiao tui, jiang xi zuo wei huo bi zheng ce kuan song de zui hou shou duan, bi yao xing bing bu qiang.   zui hou, zai zhong mei li cha yi ran pian di de bei jing xia, jiang xi hui dao zhi hui lv bian zhi ya li juan tu chong lai, dui guo nei li lv he liu dong xing dai lai fu mian ying xiang. fang dai li lv he ji zhun li shuai zhi jie xiang guan, jiang xi ke neng yin fa fang jia zai ci fan dan, yu fang di chan tiao kong de zheng ce qu xiang xiang bei. ci wai, jin nian zhu rou he you jia shi liang ge zui bu que ding xing de yin su, hou qi bu pai chu tong zhang yu qi chao yu qi, jie shi ru guo jiang xi ke neng hui jin yi bu jia ju shi chang tong zhang yu qi.   di san, jian shui jiang fei cuo shi wen ti:  " jin nian xia jue xin yao jin xing geng da gui mo de jian shui jiang fei. ba zeng zhi shui he dan wei she bao jiao fei lv jiang xia lai, jian shui jiang fei hong li jin liang wan yi yuan"," 4 yue 1 ri jiu yao jian zeng zhi shui, 5 yue 1 ri jiu yao jiang she bao fei lv"," dui suo you de zhong xiao wei qi ye shi xing pu hui xing jian shui, que bao suo you hang ye shui fu zhi jian bu zeng. dui ji ben yang lao bao xian dan wei jiao fei lv, wo men hai ming que, ke yi cong yuan gui ding de 20 jiang dao 16".   jian shui jiang fei lai de bi yu qi geng kuai, shi shi li du ye bi yu qi geng da. ci qian shi chang dui bu fen hang ye jian shui hou shi ji shui fu fan er jia zhong chi you yi huo, ben ci da ji zhe wen zong li ti dao yao dui zhei xie di kou shao le de hang ye, yong da bu ding de ban fa jia da di kou de li du, bing dui suo you de zhong xiao wei qi ye shi xing pu hui xing jian shui, que bao suo you hang ye shui fu zhi jian bu zeng, zhe hui cong gen ben shang bao zhang jian shui jiang fei de shi shi xiao guo.   di si: kuan xin yong zi jin lai yuan wen ti:  " wo men jin nian ti gao chi zi lv 0. 2 ge bai fen dian, mei you chao guo guo ji shang shuo de suo wei 3 de jing jie xian"," zheng fu yao guo jin ri zi, bu jin yao ya suo yi ban gong gong yu suan de zhi chu, er qie zeng jia te ding de jin rong ji gou he yang qi shang jiao li run jin ru guo ku, bing ba chang qi chen dian de zi jin shou hui. tong guo zhei xie ju cuo, wo men chou ji le 1 wan yi yuan zi jin. wo men hai yao qiu di fang zheng fu ye yao wa qian, ba zi ji de gong ke zuo zu. dui zhong xi bu di qu, wo men jiang ji yu shi dang de zhuan yi zhi fu zhi chi."   da li du jian shui jiang fei hui jiang di zheng fu shou ru, ti gao 0. 2 ge bai fen dian de chi zi lv jin neng bu fen mi bu you guan que kou. wei lai zheng fu hui ya suo yi ban gong gong yu suan zhi chu zhong de bu bi yao bu fen, er qie zeng jia te ding de jin rong ji gou he yang qi shang jiao li run jin ru guo ku, pan huo di fang di fang zheng fu cun liang zi jin. zong li ti dao ya suo gong gong yu suan zhi chu he zeng jia li run shang jiao deng chou ji le 1 wan yi yuan zi jin, ye shuo ming liao kai yuan jie liu de shi shi zai zai xiao guo, you li yu hou qi kuan xin yong zheng ce de luo di.   di wu, jiang di shi ti qi ye rong zi cheng ben wen ti:  " wo men si ci jiang zhun, qi mu di hai shi tong guo jiang di jin rong ji gou ben shen de cheng ben, cu jin zhei xie zi jin liu xiang min ying jing ji he xiao wei qi ye"," rang xiao wei qi ye rong zi cheng ben zai qu nian de ji chu shang zai jiang di 1 ge bai fen dian"," yin dao jin rong ji gou gai shan nei bu guan li ji zhi, duo pao min ying qi ye xiao wei qi ye, wei ta men jiang di rong zi cheng ben jian shao bu he li de fei yong chu li".   qu nian si ji du yang hang huo bi zheng ce zhi xing bao gao ti dao, qi ye dai kuan he xiao wei qi ye dai kuan li lv fen bie lian xu si ge yue he wu ge yue xia jiang, 12 yue mo fei jin rong qi ye ji qi ta bu men dai kuan jia quan ping jun li lv wei 5. 63, tong bi xia jiang 0. 11 ge bai fen dian, bi 9 yue xia jiang 0. 31 ge bai fen dian yi ban dai kuan jia quan ping jun li lv wei 5. 91, bi 9 yue xia jiang 0. 28 ge bai fen dian. zong li ti dao jin nian xiao wei qi ye rong zi cheng ben yao zai qu nian de ji chu shang zai jiang di 1 ge bai fen dian, ru guo an zhao qu nian si ji du mei ge ji du xia jiang 20 duo bp de jie zou, quan mian ke yi shi xian gai mu biao. shi ji shang, jin nian yi lai wen zhou min jian jie dai zong he li lv he piao ju zhuan tie li lv dou you suo xia xing, qi zhong wen zhou min jian jie dai zong he li lv cong qu nian 12 yue 16. 41 jiang zhi 2 yue 15. 87, 6 ge yue piao ju zhuan tie li lv cong qu nian di 2. 75 jiang zhi zui jin 2. 45 zuo you.   di liu, ci ji xiao fei wen ti:  " zheng fu gong zuo bao gao ti chu, liang nian nei yao ji ben qu xiao sheng jie gao su gong lu shou fei zhan"," wang luo de ti su jiang fei,,, jin nian yao zai guo qu de ji chu shang zai jiang fei 20. wo rang you guan fang mian ce suan, ta men yu ji yao rang li 1800 yi gei xiao fei zhe"," wo men jin nian yao zai jiang di yi ban gong shang ye dian jia 10".   jin nian ci ji xiao fei cuo shi shi quan fang wei li ti, bu jin jin you zhi jie zhen dui xiao fei zhe de wang luo jiang fei jia dian qi che xia xiang ge ren suo de shui zhi gai ge deng, hai you zhen dui chang shang jian jie shi xian rang li yu xiao fei zhe jin er ci ji lao bai xing xiao fei de cuo shi, bi ru jiang di gong shang qi ye dian jia xia diao zeng zhi shui shui lv jiang di shi ti qi ye rong zi cheng ben deng.   zheng ti er yan, shang zhou wu liang hui bi mu hou, zong li hui jian cai fang ji zhe, bing hui da le ji zhe ti chu de wen ti, zhu yao you: 1 zheng fu shi dang diao di le jing ji zeng su yu qi mu biao, xian zai zheng fu shi di xian si wei qu jian tiao kong. 2 duan qi jiang xi ke neng xing bu da, ti gao yin hang xin yong feng xian pian hao shu tong huo bi zheng ce chuan dao ji zhi cai neng gen zhi rong zi wen ti. 3 jin nian jian shui jiang fei hong li jin liang wan yi yuan, que bao suo you hang ye shui fu zhi jian bu zeng, cong gen ben shang bao zhang jian shui jiang fei de shi shi xiao guo. 4 chu le ti gao chi zi lv, zheng fu hui ya suo yi ban gong gong yu suan zhi chu zhong de bu bi yao bu fen, zeng jia li run shang jiao, pan huo di fang di fang zheng fu cun liang zi jin. suo yi wei lai kuan xin yong you zi jin bao zhang. 5 jin nian rang xiao wei qi ye rong zi cheng ben zai qu nian de ji chu shang zai jiang di 1 ge bai fen dian. 6 jin nian ci ji xiao fei cuo shi shi quan fang wei li ti, bu jin jin you zhi jie zhen dui xiao fei zhe de, hai you zhen dui chang shang jian jie shi xian rang li yu xiao fei zhe jin er ci ji lao bai xing xiao fei de cuo shi, jin nian xiao fei ke neng chao shi chang yu qi.   3 zi jin mian: xia zhou zi jin mian ke neng reng bu le guan   shang zhou shou shui qi he di fang zhai fa xing fang liang ying xiang, shang zhou xia ban zhou zi jin mian qu jin, DR001 he DR007 li lv fen bie jiao shang shang zhou wu shang xing 61bp he 47bp, dan yang hang jin zai shang zhou wu tou fang 200 yi yuan. duan qi zi jin mian you yi xia ji dian zhi de guan zhu:   shou xian, shang zhou liu you 3270 yi yuan MLF dao qi shun yan dao xia zhou yi, ran er jin nian 1 yue jiang zhun shi yang hang ceng biao shi yi ji du dao qi de zhong qi jie dai bian li bu zai xu zuo, na me xia zhou yang hang gong kai shi chang cao zuo zhi de guan cha. ru guo yang hang zi jin tou fang bu duo de hua, lei si shang zhou shang ban zhou zi jin mian qu jin de qing kuang reng you ke neng fa sheng.   qi ci, an zhao li shi gui lv, jiao shui hou zi jin mian jin zhang hui chi xu 23 tian, yin wei shang zhou wu shi ben yue shui qi jie zhi ri, na me xia zhou xia ban zhou jiao shui de fu mian ying xiang ye bu neng wan quan hu shi.   zui hou, gen ju wo men ci qian yu ce, 2019 nian di fang zhai fa xing zong liang huo chao guo 4. 35 wan yi, shang zhou di fang zhai fa xing ming xian fang liang, hou qi di fang zhai gong ji ya li dui zi jin mian di fu mian ying xiang ke neng hui chi xu jiao chang shi jian.   li lv zhai tou zi ce lue: shang zhou zhai shi cheng xian xia ban zhou zi jin mian qu jin gu zhai lian dong jian ruo he jiang xi yu qi zai qi san da te dian, quan zhou zhai quan shou yi lv zhen dang shang xing. cong jing ji ji ben mian lai kan, wu lun shi 12 yue jing ji shu ju hai shi zui jin gao pin shuo ju, dou xian shi xia you kai gong hao yu yu qi, zheng ti jing ji bao chi ping wen, er qie zong li da ji zhe wen zhong ti dao duo xiang ci ji xiao fei bao zhang kuan xin yong zi yuan lai yuan deng cuo shi, hou xu kuan xin yong dui jing ji de wei wen zuo yong ye hui jia su ti xian. zi jin mian fang mian, xia zhou zi jin mian mian lin MLF dao qi jiao shui hou fu mian ying xiang he di fang zhai fa xing fang liang de fu mian ying xiang, jian yi bu ke guo yu le guan. zui jin gu shi sui ran you suo fan fu, dan shi chang feng xian pian hao reng jiao hao, gu shi shang zhang dong li reng shi zhai shi ya li, zheng ti jian yi zhai quan jin shen cao zuo. ben wen shou fa yu wei xin gong zhong hao: qu qing zhai quan lun tan. wen zhang nei rong shu zuo zhe ge ren guan dian, bu dai biao wang li chang. tou zi zhe ju ci cao zuo, feng xian qing zi dan.

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